20-21 October: Mhow Army War College “Nuclear Security” Seminar (TBC)
10 August: On-line interview with Shivani Singh Phd University of Aberystwyth Wales. Subject-history of India’s invovement and engagement with Global nuclear institutions (IAEA, NPT, CTBT, NSG etc.). Brief : 1. Nuclear Control Chronology with perspective. 2. IAEA (1957),NPT (1968), CTBT (1996) genesis control of nuclear technology spread and regulation by the Haves. Stipulated Mandate-Nuclear Security, Safety, Prolif and safeguards. 3 Fiasco in Iraq. Fate of JCPA in Iran, Embarrassment of North Korea, Singularity of Israel, Exceptionalism when the norm applied to USA (NATO) and Russia almost as if they were aove the rule book.. 4. The current NPT review (01 Aug to 26 Aug) focused on Ukraine based on partisan perspective. 5. AUKUS and SSNs for Australia. 6. CTBT a tendentious evolution. 7. Accommodation of China vs Restraining India. 8. Ultimate Intent of NPT N-disarmament dangerously lost in the frenzy of arms build-up.. 9. AQ Khan and his legacy of nuclear black markets
November 30-01 Dec: Indus International Research Foundation “India’s Maritime Security Challenges and Responses” Webinar.
Concept: India has an extensive coastline of 7,516 km and several hundred islands, including Lakshadweep in the Arabian Sea and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands in Bay of Bengal. India faces several challenges in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) and it’s larger maritime neighbourhood. The challenges and opportunities need to be comprehended if India is to be a major power in the IOR. India is centrally located with access across the IOR. Maritime economic activities include energy, trade, and fisheries. Many of India’s activities are dependent on Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCs). Sea routes and Freedom of Navigation (FoN) is important to India’s national interest. India needs to develop integrated sea power to address this challenge. China has long been the main maritime challenge to India. In particular the Belt and Road Initiative is increasing the influence of China in the IOR, Nuclear Power forms an important part of the equation between India and China. There is a need to develop maritime nuclear deterrence by India including in the maritime domain .
There are several treaties that ostensibly promote Good Order at Sea that are often honoured more in the breach than in the observance. This is especially seen in the actions of China. Even with supposed allies there are differences that needs to be sorted out. .
The Andaman and Nicobar Islands have an important strategic location in maritime security. There has been increased building of infrastructure especially after the Ladakh standoff with China. The Tri-Service Andaman and Nicobar Command plays an important role in joint operations.
Questions: Against the backdrop of these issues, the Webinar shall try and address the following questions:
- What are the strategic challenges facing India in the IOR and Indo-Pacific?
- What are the implications of the BRI for security in IOR and Indo-Pacific?
- Given the presence of numerous nuclear powers in the Indo-Pacific what is the role and capability of India’s Maritime Nuclear Power?
- What is India’s Comprehensive Sea Power and Maritime Power Projection?
- How should India strive towards achieving Order at Sea?
October 21: The Wellham Initiative, Military History Seminar V.. 1971, The War at Sea. Panel discussion. Summary of presentation in bullet form:
- War as continuation of politics by other means-an understanding and as historically a principal deteminant in in the shaping of empires and nations. The importance of Mil History therefore
- Situation in the run up to the 71 war political, societal and military.
- The mil crackdown by the Pak mil and the devo thereof: influx of refugees, desertion and segregation of Bengalis in mil, Creation of the Mukti Bahini, evolution of contingency plans, insurgency and covert plans (Op SeaSight).
- Concept of Ops India East and West: Sea Denial, SLOC control, Sea Control and Blockade.
- Lessons to be Learned: Nature of War, Intel & Surveillance, , Planning, Matching resources with objectives, Force reconstitution, Task allocation, Execution. Understanding vastness of the sea. Mobility of a CTF. Societies donot inhabit the Sea and therefore impact of events/actions at sea is is felt on Terra firma.
- Ghazi episode, Khukri Sinking, TG 74 Enterprise episode.
Proceedings of Part V of the Webinar, “The War at Sea” was broadcast to 41 schools in India and Bangla Desh. It is available on-line at https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLo8JkhJyS-PRUBMX7ZtTQTAFboM6_zMKg
September 29: SIPRI Webinar Reinvigorating South Asian Nuclear Transparency and CBMs.
September 27: Army War College Presentation “Nuclear SecurityDynamics, Taking the Deterrent to Sea.
September 15: Global Zero, review of Action Plan
September 14: Speaker online course – “India’s Military Strategy: It’s Crafting and Implementation’. Course conducted by Council for Strategic and Defence Research.
The Council for Strategic and Defense Research (CSDR) is offering a three-week course on
India’s Military Strategy. Aimed at students, analysts and researchers, this unique course is
designed and delivered by highly-regarded former members of the Indian Armed Forces,
former bureaucrats, and eminent academics. This course aims to help participants critically
understand India’s military strategy informed by history, examples, and empirical evidence.
Led by people who have ‘been there and done that’, the course deconstructs and clarifies the mechanisms that affect the country’s military strategy. By demystifying India’s military strategy and what factors influence it, the course connects
the crafting of this strategy to the logic behind its crafting.
• To impart an understanding of the Indian military’s organizational structure, ethos,
and nature of civil-military relations.
• To explore the various facets of India’s military strategy in the maritime, land, and air
domains, including its evolution and logic.
III. Who will take this course?
• Mid-career researchers, graduate students, and analysts interested in issues
pertaining to national security and military affairs based in India and abroad.
• Researchers and armed forces aspirants seeking to understand how the Indian
military system functions.
• Early career foreign diplomats looking to expand their knowledge on Indian defence
policy and networks.
• Anyone else interested in Indian defence policy praxis.
Structure of the course
India’s Maritime Strategy (1730h-1900h0)
The session will answer the following questions:
How does the Indian Navy secure India’s interests in the Indian Ocean?
How can the Navy’s strategy for the Indian Ocean best be understood, and what prominent challenges does it face?
Does India effectively use its sea power? How much space does the maritime domain occupy in India’s strategic thinking?
How has the Navy’s role evolved over the years since independence, and what are the elements set to be modified in the future?
February 10: Global Zero Regional Nuclear Advisory Group third On-Line Conference
September 15: Global Zero Regional Nuclear Advisory Group On-Line Conference
September 15 : Launch of Stimson South Asia Program’s online course “Deterrence in Southern Asia,” which you so kindly participated in, at www.stratlearning.org. Additionally, if you are teaching a remote course this semester on international security, the politics of nuclear weapons, or Southern Asia, consider assigning this course, or select parts of it. “Deterrence in Southern Asia” also serves as a useful backgrounder that you can recommend to students as an additional resource. Thank you again for providing your expertise to this course and I hope you’ll reach out to our team at email@example.com with any questions you have or to share your thoughts on the course.
Aug 11: Army War College, Mhow Higher Command Course Web Seminar; Nuclear Dynamics in South Asia.
July 16: Global Zero Regional Nuclear Advisory Group On-Line Conference
- Impact of changes in nuclear postures and break down of nuclear institutions on the global nuclear environment (NPR-18, China’s military nuclear policy reforms, Russia’s Principles of State Policy on N-deterrence and Pakistan’s quid pro quo plus policy)
- Dynamics of N-doctrinal Issues that rock N-stability in the subcontinent
- Understanding deterrence (or its absence) in the South Asian context
- Proliferation risks & N risk reduction
- Chinese receptiveness to N-dialogue
- Form and Order of Business (admin frame-work).
June 29: ‘SIPRI interview. Assessing Nuclear Deterrence Risks and Challenges in South Asia’
Led by Dr Petr Topychkanov and Lora Saalman. The objective was to promote regional nuclear stability among India, Pakistan, China, Russia and theUnited States. SIPRI seeks to facilitate multilateral engagement and dialogues aimed at enhancing awareness of the escalatory risks associated with nuclear arsenal expansion and development, as well as the introduction of emerging technologies to strategic weapons. Assessing Nuclear Deterrence Risks and Challenges in South Asia areas of dialogue:
1. What are the key characteristics of the nuclear policies of India, Pakistan, China, Russia and/or the United States? What have been their primary shifts over the past two decades?
2. What is the most likely source of nuclear escalation in South Asia? Where is this most likely to occur, maritime, land, air, space, etc.? Why?
3. How does China impact South Asian nuclear dynamics?
4. How does the United States impact South Asian nuclear dynamics?
5. How does Russia impact South Asian nuclear dynamics?
6. What are the key political, military, and technical reasons for shifts in South Asian nuclear deterrence over the past 5-10 years? Which Indian, Pakistani, Chinese, US and/or Russian policies have been most important?
7. Which Indian weapons or technologies are likely to have the greatest impact on nuclear deterrence in South Asia? Why?
8. Which Pakistani weapons or technologies are likely to have the greatest impact on nuclear deterrence in South Asia? Why?
9. Which Chinese weapons or technologies are likely to have the greatest impact on nuclear deterrence in South Asia? Why?
10. Which US weapons or technologies are likely to have the greatest impact on nuclear deterrence in South Asia? Why?
11. Which Russian weapons or technologies are likely to have the greatest impact on nuclear deterrence in South Asia? Why?
Mar 05-06: Force Commanders Conclave, New Delhi.
Feb 09: J Sekhon adress on nuclear security, AFA Ahmedabad.
Oct 09: Army War College, Mhow, “Nuclear Dynamics South Asia.”
Sep 16-19: The Stimson Centre, Washington DC. Interview, Workshop and seminar on South Asian Security. .
Sep 13: Council on Foreign Relations, New York City. Address on South Asian Nuclear Security
Sep 11: Princeton, Global Zero coference
Apr 29: Discussions/consultations at NIAS on the ASAT and Balakot airstrikes.
Apr 10-12: Nuclear Crisis Group Plenary Meeting, Berlin. (Event postponed)
Feb 26-28: IIT Bombay. Seminar on Nuclear Security. Subject matter experts drawn from Texas A&M University, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), U.S. nuclear power plant, Indian academics and Industry.
Jan 20-21: CAPS Delhi, Nuclear Strategy Seminar inaugural Address and ‘Taking the Deterrent to Sea‘
Oct 16: Army War College Mhow, Panel discussion on Nuclear Dynamics-Operationalizing the The Indian Nuclear Triad. With particular ref to the sea based deterrence.
Oct 11: NIAS discussions on Uranium Constraints in Pakistan.
Aug 27: NLSUI Lecture on Nuclear Security in South Asia
Aug 04: National Law School Seminar, International Law & International Relations. Speakers included: Amb TCA Rangachari, Manimuthu Gandhi, Supriya Rao, Mani Shankar Aiyar, Abhijit Iyer Mitra, Bedavyasa Mohanti.
Spoke on International Law & Maritime Affairs; it set off a very vbrant discussion and Q&A session particularly on China’s revisionist agenda, the frailty of UNCLOS and Systems at sea and the paradox of Order in the time of Derangements. Outline of the PPT: International Law & Maritime Affairs the Tussle between Sovereignty and Universality-Mahan’s Prescient Perspectives-Concept of the Global Commons and Nature of Domain-Governance and Order at Sea-Derangements and Power Struggles-Laws of War & Rules of Engagement.
With Ruhee, Rajeshwari, Mohanti, Gandhi, Supriya, Rangachari, Mitra and Students
July 05-06: Maritime Warfare Centre, Kochi; Diamond Jubilee Seminar.
March 29-30: Western Fleet Golden Jubilee. Admiral Nayyar made an erudite analysis of the evolution and intellectual development of the Fleet through anecdotes and personal experience. On the third wave transformation underway that would establish the vision and reach of the Fleet, the Quad provided the stage for just such a renewal. The venue for the presentation was Vikramaditya.
March 21-22: DSSC Aerospace and Nuclear Seminar 2018. Key note address and Chair Nuclear session.
March 20-23: INS GANGA Shrotamo asmi Jhanavi Decommissioning in Mumbai. Poignant moments. It was Ganga that ushered in methods to network and control the maritime operational domain. The awe and curiosity was more than apparent when we operated with the Admiral Vinogradov Task Group (in 1993 the Russians were operating out of area for the first time since the dissolution of the USSR).
INS Ganga BMF Vinogradov
February 26-28: IN-NMF ‘Indo-Pacific Regional Dialogue, New Delhi
February 23: US Air War College dialogue “India, US and the Indo-Pacific”
- Collapse of 20th Century Order and Post-Cold War Doctrines without an alternative
- (in the meantime) Global prosperity, The Indo Pacific Pivot of eco growth: 60% volume $5Tr value; power rivalries most intense
- (the fallout) Instabilities: unpredictable driven by a variety considerations; Maldives, Yemen, North Korea, Ukraine
- (the strategic irony) Acceptance of Authoritarian regimes
- (therefore)China: All systems warfare, OBOR proprietary routes vs free trade, Return of Alliances the Quad, competing control of global resources
- (paradox of an era of globalisation) Neo Nationalism: return to the inter war period (1919-1939), MSC 2018 no forum for conflict resolution, Int relations an aggregation national dictates, Global fallout of regional and sub-regional conflicts
- (ethnic and religious wounds open)Terrorism
- (potential for mass destruction) Nuclear weapons and the advocacy of TNWs, Proliferation & North Korea Syndrome
- Demographic flux; mass disgruntlement
- Climate Change
February 22: Strategic Workshop Preparation at NIAS. Presentation framework:
- Concept of Strategic Workshop, Scope and Objectives. Structure and Mechanics of Workshop
- Scenario Development Validation of Scenario
- Selection of Participants
- Play time Analysis and Logistics
November 15: Princeton University, Round table Nuclear Crisis Group and discussion with Students
November 7: Georgetown University, School for Foreign Service. Lecture: “Staring Down the Abyss”.
October 22: Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, International Security Studies Program “Nuclear Security on the Subcontinent.”
July 17: Army Higher Command College, Mhow; Panel Discussion on Nuclear Security
July 04: NIAS, International Strategic and Security Studies Programme.
Deliberations on proceedings of the First Meeting of the Nuclear Crisis Group (NCG) held at Vienna.
The real peril in the nuclear domain lay in the inability of formal establishments to track potential situations of nuclear conflict. If such risks remain ignored, misunderstood or mismanaged, they could even lead to unintended consequences. Recognising this, an international crisis group was formed as a sub-set of Obama’s nuclear legacy, a Global Zero Commission on nuclear risk reduction. The primary mission of the forum would be to generate analysis of these predicaments, develop proposals for de-escalation and consult with appropriate agencies to diminish the danger of nuclear exchange. The Group, an international assemblage of experts from nuclear armed countries and their allies has been set in order to realise this prospective initiative. Along with the deliberations of the meeting, the general features and purpose of the NCG, Admiral Shankar will also be addressing the various nuclear flash points that the NCG has identified- with a focus on the situation in the sub-continent.
May 5-6: The Nuclear Crisis Roundtable, Vienna
Global Zero’s newly formed Nuclear Crisis Group will hold their first conference on May 5-6, 2017 in Vienna, aligned with the NPT PrepCom. The conference – the Nuclear Crisis Roundtable – will be co-hosted by Global Zero and the government of Sweden and will take place at Schwedenhaus, Sweden’s embassy in Vienna. The Nuclear Crisis Group is an international group of esteemed experts from nuclear countries and their allies. The group will constantly track situations of potential nuclear conflict that risk being catastrophically ignored, misunderstood or mismanaged. It will produce analysis of these situations, develop proposals for de-escalation measures and conduct ongoing consultations with governments to de-escalate well before the nuclear threshold is crossed. This initiative builds on the work and expertise of the Global Zero Commission on Nuclear Risk Reduction. Co-chaired by Ambassador Thomas Pickering and General (ret.) James E. Cartwright, invited South Asian representatives at the roundtable are Vice Admiral (retd.) Vijay Shankar (India) and Gen. (retd.) Jehangir Karamat (Pakistan).
March 10: Force Commander’s Conclave, New Delhi
March 6-7: INS Viraat Decommissioning, Mumbai
February 6: Round Table Address, National Institute for Advanced Studies:
- Strategic Implications of Chinese Shang Class SSN Visit to Karachi
- Recent Reported Firing Trial of the Babur III.
- The Rafael Grossi’s Letter For Non-NPT Applicants to the NSG.
October 6-7: Address at the Goa International Maritime Symposium
September 28 : Book launch Address critical acclaim for “Left of Boom” or “No War. No Peace?” Authors: Perkovich and Dalton.
September 14: Round Table Centre for Policy Research and Atlantic Council: India’s Nuclear Futures
September 2-3: Conference on “Emerging Trends in Non-Traditional Security: Threats and Responses,” Christ University, Bengaluru. Valedictory address on “Non-Traditional Security Threats.”
May 6: Roundtable discussion on “Evolution of the Deterrence at Sea,” Carnegie Endowment for Peace, Washington D.C.
April 4-6: Oak Ridge National Lab, Tennessee USA (ORNL), National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), and IIT (Delhi) Cyber Security Workshop.
March 29-31: International Institute for Strategic Studies, London. Round Table discussion on “Nuclear Deterrence at Sea: India’s Evolving Options.“
March 7: National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS) Department of Science and Technology Workshop. Address titled “Science and Technology in the Maritime Domain: an Indian Perspective.”
October 29: “Nuclear Submarines and Maritime Security in South Asia” Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA.
October 14: “Maritime Security in South Asia” Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington DC.
September 14 (AM): Confabulations with the International Security Advisory Board (ISAB, Sec. John Kerry’s) on “The Nature of Strategic Stability on the Sub Continent,” State Dept. Washington DC.
September 14 (PM): Presentation and Round Table discussion, “Nuclear Doctrinal Debate,” Carnegie Endowment, Washington DC.
May 3-7: Speaker, Fifth Annual Residential Young Scholars’ Workshop, Global Nuclear Politics and Strategy 2015, Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies and National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bangalore.
End-March: Global Zero General’s Commission, Athens, Greece
January 23: National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bangalore:
i. Lecture on Maritime Security (Annual Program for Senior Executives)
ii. ‘Development of Strategic Scenarios and their Gaming’ (Analysis of workshop conducted in March 2014 for Naval War College.)
October 6: Lawrence Livermore National Labs, Livermore CA; Talk titled “A Covenant sans Sword: India’s Nuclear Doctrine.”
September 22-26: University of Tennessee (UT) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL); Talks titled “Maritime Security in the Indian Ocean and West Pacific” and “Strategic Stability on the Subcontinent”
September 17: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Security Studies Program, Boston, MA.; Talk titled “Nuclear Security on the Subcontinent”
September: Atlantic Council, Washington, DC. Roundtable discussion on “Nuclear Security on the Subcontinent.” Audio of discussion available here.
June 20: National Defense College, New Delhi. Talk titled “Strife on the Global Commons: The High Seas”.
March 3-5: GIBSA 2014, Germany-India-Brazil-South Africa Dialogue ‘Af-Pak, Global Economy & Maritime Security’
March 12-15: Strategic Workshop at National Institute for Advanced Studies, Bangalore, India
February 23-25: Strategic Studies Summit, Bangkok, Thailand. Talk on “Maritime Security in the Indian Ocean Region and the ‘Uncertainty Paradigm'”
Vice Admiral (Retd.) Vijay Shankar speaking on Maritime Security in the Indian Ocean Region and the ‘Uncertainty Paradigm’ at the Strategic Studies Summit, Bangkok, 23-25 February 2014.
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