The Security Overlay
By
Vice Admiral (retd) Vijay Shankar
(Forthcoming in the Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies Quarterly, New Delhi)
Keywords: China Maritime Strategy, Third Security Chain, Northern Passage, Access Denial, Gwadar-Karakoram-Xinjiang Corridor
The ‘Uncertainty’ Paradigm
The end of the Cold War brought in its wake prognostication of the emergence of one world in which harmony, democracy, an end to conflict, and man’s ideological evolution was imagined. The grand formulation was that Western liberal democracy had prevailed.[1] Some saw a multipolar order and the arrival of China; others forecast a clash of civilisations.[2] However, these conjectures found little use in understanding the realities of the post Cold War world, as each represented a candour of its own. The paradigm of the day, I would posit, is ‘uncertainty,’ as marked by the tensions of multi polarity; tyranny of economics; anarchy of expectations; and a polarisation along religio-cultural lines, all compacted in the cauldron of globalization.
The West saw in globalization a process which transformed the world in their mould, through the adoption of Western values, free markets, the rule of law, flow of Western capital and embracing of democratic norms. Globalization with Chinese characteristics is about State capitalism, supremacy of central authority, controlled markets and currency and influence through power. It factored endemic instability[3], underscoring the premium on military power and the fundamental contradictions that existed, perceiving them as threatening the Chinese State and its dispensation, and as an impediment to growth and development. Against this backdrop, is the politics of competitive resource access which rationalizes the use of military power. It is in this perspective that Chinese maritime strategy must be gauged.
Economic Power and China’s Case for ‘Lebensraum’
China’s quest to secure rights of passage on the sea is to insure against the uncertainties of access to resources. It has led her to the ‘Northern Passage.’[4] Significantly, the route avoids two sensitive ‘choke points,’ the Malacca Strait and the Suez Canal. China also theorises that the road to securing lines of communication is through a strategy of ‘Access Denial.’[5] The strategy was founded on China’s security concern with Taiwan where its logic is obvious. But, enabling such a strategy on a global scale invites confrontation.
Today China is the world’s largest exporter, its economy is second to the USA and she is the third largest energy consumer. When we look at the growth pattern of India since liberalization, we note a similar trend. Indeed, with one third of this growth being powered by trade to the East and China our largest trading partner, the requirement to secure these interests become vital. In this circumstance the race to garner resources by two very large economies is fraught. But the real alarm is that China seeks to influence and dominate international regulatory and security institutions without bringing about a change within, what I will call, her own ‘organic morphology.’ China’s disputed claims on the South China Sea; her handling of internal dissent; her proliferatory carousing with North Korea and Pakistan are cases that do not inspire confidence in change occurring within. The emergence of China from out of its defensive maritime perimeters, as defined by the first and second island chains, into the Indian Ocean is seen as the coming ‘Third Security Chain.’ Gone is the power bashfulness that marked the Deng era, in its place is the contemporary conviction that “the-world-needs-China-more-than-China-the-world”.
Evolution of China’s Maritime Strategy
China published its sixth Defence White Paper in January 2008. The paper notes that struggle for cornering strategic resources, dominating geographically vital areas and tenanting strategic locations have intensified. Power as a natural currency of politics remained the preferred instrument. Under these circumstances the portents for conflict are ever present and would therefore demand preparedness, modernization and strategic orientation of a nature that would serve to neutralize friction.[6] Central to the Paper is that “influence of military-security factors on international relations is mounting.” ‘Active Defence,’ embracing the development of bases overseas to launch strategy along with advanced assault and enhanced strike capabilities, remained the means. Doctrinal underpinnings to realise such capabilities and the development of ‘Access Denial and Control’ Strategy are now at the core of Chinese military thought.[7]
Two events of the 1990s have shaped Chinese strategy. From the Gulf War of 1991, China took home a reason for strategic pre-emption.[8] The second was the Taiwan crisis of 1995-1996, U.S. deployment of two carrier groups in the Strait embarrassingly infringed sovereignty. These episodes triggered the ‘Access Denial’ strategy. The development of capabilities, in material terms, operational precepts and strategic alliances threaten to upset the status quo. Operating from infrastructure cultivated in Sittwe and Aan in Myanmar, Hambantotta in Sri Lanka, Maroa in the Maldives and Gwadar in Pakistan gives legs to long range access denial.
Specific operational deployments to muscle her maritime strategy in the Indian Ocean may include: One carrier group; Ballistic Missile Nuclear Submarine on deterrent patrol; nuclear powered attack submarines on sea lines patrol with cooperating surface groups and maritime patrol aircrafts; long range maritime strike aircrafts operating from Aan or Gwadar; one amphibious brigade standby with transports on hand at one of the ‘string of pearls;’ and, a regiment of ASAT missiles along with cyber teams to wage information warfare that will seek to paralyze hostile operations.
To Counter an Enabled Theory
The principal demand of maritime operations is to attain a strategic position that would permit control of oceanic spaces. It therefore comes as no surprise that China develops forces and alliances necessary to realize an ‘access denial’ strategy. Consistent with theory is their shipbuilding programme of escorts and scouts to exercise control; and aircraft carriers assisted by strike and denial forces for security of control. Control and Security of Control is the classic model that China’s naval growth has been inspired by.
China has unambiguously articulated its three strategic objectives; stability, growth and regional pre eminence. The problem with such sweeping strategies specifically the coming ‘Third Security Chain’ superimposed on access denial is its blindness to recognize that we are dealing with a sea space that is the busiest of all the “vast commons.” The reluctance for collaboration makes the potential for friction high. The only consideration that could deter a collision is the ability of India to attain a strategic posture that serves to stabilize. India’s relationship with the USA provides opportunity to establish cooperative security in the region that could counterpoise China’s self-centred view of globalization.
—
End Notes
[1]Fukuayama Francis. “The End of History.” The National Interest, 16 (Summer 1989), pp 4, 18.
[2] Huntington. Samuel, P. The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order, Penguin Books, India 1997, pp 30-39.
[3] The World at War http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/war/index.html.The United Nations defines “major wars” as military conflicts inflicting 1,000 battlefield deaths per year. In 1965, there were 10 major wars under way. The new millennium began with much of the world consumed in armed conflict or cultivating an uncertain peace. Between 1989 and 2010, forty nine wars erupted. As of mid-2005, there were eight Major Wars under way [down from 15 at the end of 2003], with as many as two dozen “lesser” conflicts ongoing with varying degrees of intensity.
[4] Article by author titled “The Gwadar-Karakoram-Xinjiang Corridor”, published in the September 2012 issue of the DSA. The Northern Passage was a fabled sea route theorised by adventurers, merchants and money chandlers over the last six centuries to
link the Pacific with the Atlantic Ocean. The Route lay through the Arctic archipelago the treacherous ice flows that frustrate passage across the Arctic Ocean. To put matters in perspective, as a trade corridor the distance from China to markets in Europe has been cut down to less than 8000 miles from 14,700 miles. In 2011 more than 18 commercial ships and in 2012 forty ships have made the now ice-free crossing.
[5] Security analysts have examined China’s efforts to develop weapons systems that can retard or even stop a potential adversary from entering an area of interest. Dubbed “access-denial,” the aim of such a strategy is to use weapons that deter and should the need arise challenge or indeed prevent inimical forces from operating in conflict zones or oceanic areas of interest . The teeth of this strategy is an anti-ship missile. Such a missile, fired from land, sea, underwater or air can cause tremendous damage to an enemy surface vessel. While such technology isn’t new, the effective ranges of such weapons have increased tremendously, along with their accuracy, speed of delivery and precision. Defending against such systems is therefore a major problem for planners
[6] Ma Cheng-Kun, PLA News Analysis, “Significance of 2008 China’s National Defense White Paper” no. 15, pp. 49-60
[7] Ibid
[8] Lewis John Wilson and Litai Xue, “The Quest for a Modern Air Force” in Imagined Enemies China Prepares for Uncertain War, Stanford University Press 2006, p237. General Liu Jingsong, a member of the 15th CPC Central Committee, he was also the PLA Commander of the Shenyang and Lanzhou military regions and to him amongst others is attributed the opening of Equatorial Guinea 1995.
Strategic Dialogues 
Sir, Fascinating and insightful read. Have recommended to all my students. Regards. Venkat
Dear Venkata,
Thanks. I am in Bangalore on 8 March at the NIAS why don’t we meet.
Vijay
i finally decided to write a comment on your blog. i just wanted to say good job. i really enjoy reading your posts. thumb up. lista de email lista de email lista de email lista de email lista de email
simply amazing lol… lista de email lista de email lista de email lista de email lista de email
Hello, just wanted to say, I enjoyed this article. It was
inspiring. Keep on posting!
Your article is here, the feeling of a mere individual can harvest more.Let these people from all over the world, even in the heart with blessedness. We are not desolateness.
Thanks for finally writing about >Globalization with Chinese Maritime Characteristics | Strategic Dialogues <Loved it!
You ought to be a part of a contest for one of the most useful sites on the net.
I most certainly will recommend this web site!
I’m not that much of a internet reader to be honest but your sites really
nice, keep it up! I’ll go ahead and bookmark your website to come back in the future.
Many thanks
Great post. I had been checking constantly this website and I am just impressed!
Extremely helpful information specifically the final part 🙂 I look after such info a great deal.
I used to be looking for this certain information to get a
number of years. Many thanks and best of luck.
Feel free to visit my page: ReidHZirin
Great goods from you, man. I have understand your stuff previous to and you’re just extremely magnificent.
I really like what you’ve acquired here, certainly like what you are saying
and the way in which you say it. You make it enjoyable and you still take care of to keep it wise.
I can not wait to read far more from you. This is really a great site.
I like the valuable info you supply in your articles.
I’ll bookmark your blog and test once more right here regularly.
I am somewhat certain I’ll learn lots of new stuff right here!
Good luck for the following!
Heya i’m for the first time here. I came across this board and I find It really
useful & it helped me out much. I hope to give
something back and aid others like you helped me.
I’ve been browsing online more than 3 hours nowadays,
yet I never discovered any fascinating article
like yours. It’s beautiful price sufficient for me.
Personally, if all site owners and bloggers made just right content as you probably did, the internet might be much more helpful than ever before.
After looking into a number of the blog articles on your blog, I
truly like your way of writing a blog. I bookmarked it to
my bookmark webpage list and will be checking back soon. Please visit my web site too and
tell me what you think.
Woah! I’m really loving the template/theme of this site.
It’s simple, yet effective. A lot of times it’s difficult to get that “perfect balance” between superb usability and visual appeal.
I must say you have done a very good job with this.
In addition, the blog loads very quick for me on Opera.
Outstanding Blog!
Thanks for your marvelous posting! I certainly enjoyed reading it, you will be a great author.
I will remember to bookmark your blog and will eventually come back from now on. I
want to encourage you to ultimately continue your great
writing, have a nice afternoon!
excellent put up, very informative. I wonder why
the opposite specialists of this sector
don’t notice this. You should continue your writing.
I’m sure, you have a huge readers’ base already!
I’ve read a few excellent stuff here. Definitely value bookmarking for revisiting.
I surprise how so much attempt you place to create such a great informative site.
Hi there, just became aware of your blog through
Google, and found that it’s truly informative. I am going to watch
out for brussels. I will be grateful if you continue this in future.
Numerous people will be benefited from your writing.
Cheers!
Hi there, I enjoy reading through your article. I like to
write a little comment to support you. https://bookmarkstumble.com/story6816586/goodlifeloan
First of all, congratses on this blog post. This
is actually actually fantastic but that is actually why you
constantly crank out my good friend. Excellent blog posts that our company
can sink our pearly whites into and truly go to function.
I adore this blogging site post and you understand you are actually.
Writing a blog can easily be really mind-boggling for a whole lot of individuals since there is actually so a lot included yet its own like just about anything else.
Great portion as well as thanks for the acknowledgment below, wow …
Exactly how cool is that.
Off to share this article currently, I desire all those
brand new bloggers to observe that if they don’t presently possess a strategy 10 they do now.
Check out my homepage … chicago
Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I really appreciate your efforts and I will be waiting for your further post thanks once again.
I have been browsing online more than 2 hours today, yet I never found any interesting article like yours.
It is pretty worth enough for me. In my opinion, if all site owners and bloggers made good content as you did, the internet will be a lot more useful than ever before.
I couldn’t refrain from commenting. Very well written!
I’m amazed, I must say. Rarely do I come across a blog that’s equally educative and engaging, and without
a doubt, you have hit the nail on the head. The problem is something not enough folks are speaking intelligently about.
I’m very happy I stumbled across this during my hunt for something relating to this.
You’re so cool! I do not believe I’ve truly read through a single thing like this
before. So great to find someone with a few unique thoughts on this
subject matter. Seriously.. thank you for starting this up.
This site is something that is needed on the internet, someone
with a little originality!
Great article! We are linking to this great content on our website.
Keep up the great writing.
Here is my page; https://ciutatgranturia.es/2023/03/14/seven-emerging-www-olymptrade-online-com-br-tendencies-to-look-at-in-2023/
Hello! Someone in my Facebook group shared this site
with us so I came to look it over. I’m definitely loving the information. I’m bookmarking and will be tweeting this to my followers!
Superb blog and superb style and design.