Strategic Stability: The See Saw Margery Daw of Nuclear Politics

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VAdm (retd.) Vijay Shankar 

Keywords: Nuclear Doctrinal Co-relation, Deterrence Stability, Strategic Equilibrium, Conventionalizing the Deterrent, “How much is enough?”

This paper draws from a presentation made by the author to members of the Ottawa Dialogue, a Track II initiative, on 12 December 2010 in Bangkok, Thailand.

All rights reserved. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form or by any electronic or mechanical means, including information storage and retrieval systems, without written permission from the author, except in the case of a reviewer, who may quote brief passages embodied in critical articles or in a review. Author’s email: snigir@gmail.com

Read full article here: Shankar, Strategic Stabilty

Excerpt:

Preamble

Ours is an enigmatic, deficient, at times unfair, and for the most, an incompetent world. Its dynamics often engender paranoia and deep distrust between states particularly when amorphous national interests and intentions come into question. Unfortunately the alternative to this system is anarchy.

Marshall Ferdinand Foch, one of the lesser of the meat grinding generals of the First World War when faced with the bewildering nature of the larger strategic situation is said to have countered with a fundamental question, “De quoi s’agit-il”?[i] “What is it all about?” Indeed this poser, if understood and answered in the context of nuclear stability, would bring us to the complexities that face nations with the coming of a weapon that can obliterate the very purpose of warfare. Rarely in history have we seen the advent of a weapon that could in one flash achieve the grisly Clauswitzian goal of absolute war.

Against the reality of conventional war with its limited goals and moderated ends and the unlikelihood of it being outlawed in the foreseeable future, the separation of the conventional from the nuclear is a logical severance. Nuclear weapons are to deter and not for use. Given the politics of the South Asian region, the historical animosities and the emasculated nature of civilian leadership in Pakistan, the dangers of adding nuclear violence to military perfidy, as recent proliferatory history has shown, is more than just a reality. The collusive nature of the Sino-Pak nuclear weapons programme and the duality that it presents queers the field to an extent when nuclear doctrinal co-relation is suggested. Stability in this context would suggest stability of the deterrent relationship with avoidance of conflict provocation being the leitmotif.

The essence of stability is therefore to agree on certain foundational rules of conduct based on an understanding of realities. In defining these rules the intrusion of technology is unfortunately double edged for while it provides for modernization it invites covertness, which promotes, what I have termed as, a speculative bulge in the arsenal. The recent plutonium rush and the burgeoning of nuclear arsenals in the sub-continent is a manifestation of this bulge. Secondly, that the army in Pakistan is the true power centre, is that nation’s most open secret and therefore for India to engage an enfeebled and impotent civilian leadership is self defeating. Unless the army is brought into the dialogue, either directly or indirectly through an interlocutor, deliberations on deterrent stability will be destined for failure.

[i]Marshall Ferdinand Foch as quoted in the book ‘The Guns of August’ by Tuchman, Barbara published in 1962.

Read full article here: Shankar, Strategic Stabilty

Iran – A War has Begun

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VAdm (retd.) Vijay Shankar 

Keywords: IAEA and Iran, Iran Oil Exports, UN Iran Sanctions, Strait of Hormuz, Asymmetric Warfare, Denial Strategy

This article was first published on Defence and Security Alterts (dsalerts.org) in March 2012 and reposted on GlobalDefence.net in May 2012.

All rights reserved. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form or by any electronic or mechanical means, including information storage and retrieval systems, without written permission from the author, except in the case of a reviewer, who may quote brief passages embodied in critical articles or in a review. Author’s email: snigir@gmail.com

Download full article here: Shankar, Iran a War has Begun

Excerpt:

A war has begun in Iran; a combination of covert action, economic sanctions, political isolation and the threat of military pre-emption have not just crippled the Iranian economy but have checkmated Iran’s war waging potential. The threat of unleashing an asymmetric conflict is more pressure tactics than a credible denial strategy. Critical aspect is assessing Iran’s ability to close the Gulf as threatened periodically. Iran and especially the naval elements of its Revolutionary Guard Corps, has sought to develop a unique denial naval force based largely upon flotillas of fast, attack crafts backed up by a variety of crafts capable of laying mines, conventional and midget submarines. These are supported by shore-based anti-shipping missiles, aircraft, rockets and artillery all with rudimentary command and control. However they are not equipped materially nor technologically for any sustained denial operations when up against US and coalition forces. What they could achieve is disruption through low level sporadic attacks on shipping. Whether Iran has the political sagacity to cope with the current situation without giving opportunity for the US to take recourse to arms is a moot question. And what of the strategy of despair: terror?

[…]

Whether Iran has the political sagacity to cope with the current situation without giving opportunity for the US to take recourse to arms is a moot question, for if it does not it goes the Libya-Iraq way. In the meantime nations like India must cultivate alternate energy sources in preparation for the contingency when its energy lines from Iran are severely disrupted.

Download full article here: Shankar, Iran a War has Begun

Those Tiny Footprints

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Strategic perspectives to confront terror groups having access to disproportionate destructive power

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Vice Admiral (retd) Vijay Shankar

Keywords: Disproportional destructive power, Strategy for Coastal Security, Mumbai 26/11, Nuclear terror threats, “Footprint Matrix” tool

Download full article here: Shankar, Those Tiny Footprints

Excerpts:

The Gift of Disproportionality

Globalization and its hand-maidens, the free flow of ideas, material and personnel, has in addition to releasing individual creativity, conferred upon small groups disproportionate destructive and disruptive power. Access to this power and its illicit use involves a process which leaves frustratingly tiny footprints. The narrative of 26/11 and its chronology (See Table in Annexure) are well documented. What is not so well known is the evolution of the operational plan and the tell-tales that this process may have left for a discerning establishment to perceive and act upon. My case is to emphasize that our campaign against terror essentially involves the cognizance of these tiny footprints, tracking them and assuring the failure of inimical acts before they are committed. The 26/11 episode and the maritime domain provide the canvas for this enquiry.

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Our review of the current state of the coastal defence scheme would appear to project a disjointed image of a contrivance that depends more on a massed approach to security through the induction of numbers (in terms of human resources as well as surveillance means). While it is true that there is logic in numbers, yet the adversary is one who has perfected the art of visualising the cracks in the system. Obviously with more disparate elements involved, more cracks are there to slip in between. On 26/11, ten men with small arms came in two inflatable boats and held our financial capital to ransom for sixty hours.  The mayhem in terms of loss of lives apart, the Bombay Stock Exchange closed down for the same period resulting in trading disruption of close to USD 9 billion per day. And this is the essence of the disproportionality that has been conferred. ‘Mass’ pitted against ‘Knowledge’ invariably results in victory to the latter.

The covenant between religion and the terrorist is a volatile one. It is neither appeased by bargains nor is it broken by modernity. Indeed it has fused the ideology that drives them with the source of their being (this may explain the suicide bomber). Under these conditions the only route that can succeed is the promise of failure for which, the answer lies in adopting a unified strategy both in form and content. The Footprint Matrix provides an instrument to channelize national effort. We concentrate on any one Zone at the peril of missing out on the others. Persistence is the key not only to the assailant but also to the defender, the adoption of large scale electronic means for profiling, surveilling, collating and analyses is a necessity.

The nuclear dimension is the clear and potentially, the most destructive present danger. While a nuclear strike may present a very complex planning task, our adversaries have shown themselves to be up to the most challenging, the most improbable and yes, the most diabolic. The establishments’ facility to deter, defend and respond will test its will to coalesce to the extreme.

There appears to be an absence of a guiding national strategy which seeks to marshal all resources towards one aim. If our primary strategic goal is to protect against dangerous people and the ingress of illicit hazardous material then this goal must serve to transform the existing organizational and material structures. The litmus test to ascertain progress lies in the extent to which we have a unified strategy in place and develop a joint surveillance and pre-emption capability; clearly the waters on both these counts remain murky.

Download full article here: Shankar, Those Tiny Footprints

[1] The Sicarii were a secret society of Jewish contract assassins in the 1st century AD during the Roman occupation of Jerusalem.